Our world is highly complex. History is filled with examples of how seemingly unrelated events led to unexpected outcomes. The interaction between humans and their physical environment has second and third order effects that aren’t easy to understand. This makes the business of forecasting challenging, and the outcomes of various events difficult to model. American … More By winning battles against COVID-19, governments could lose the war
The first half of 2017 is over, and my book remained almost unchanged from the end of 1Q 2017 to the end of June. I maintain my defensive stance, risking one-third of my usual sizing for any new positions and also gunning for lowly-correlated positions in terms of price structure as well as fundamental logic. … More 2nd Quarter 2017 Review & Strategy for 2H 2017
While it was a decent 3 months for both broad equity and bond markets, all my trades did not work out as expected and I cut all my initial positions that were initiated in January. Additionally, a couple of my positions that were USD-denominated also saw valuations affected by the slight weakening of the Dollar against … More Review of 1st Quarter 2017 & Portfolio Update
Over the past 2 decades, a more interconnected and intertwined world have allowed capital to flow easily across borders, leading to rising correlations among asset classes that were once thought to be totally disconnected or unrelated to one another. One such area is the grain market, where the increasing usage of bio-fuels as well as … More Are Grains bottoming out?