Last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the U.S. took the financial community by storm as its January policy update were seen by investors and market observers as an outright ‘U-Turn’. However, it may not be so. The most talked about was the change in the middle portion of the Fed’s statement during … More The Fed did not make a U-Turn
It’s time for a review of 2018, and I have to say that I managed to protect my capital (which is great and am fortunate) but I did not capitalise aggressively on opportunities that I was aware of. But for both Wall Street and Main Street and for investors who have to be invested from … More Reviewing 2018, & what’s next?
An excerpt from a week’s journal: 20 August 2018: Observations & Thoughts Today was generally a risk-on environment, with Chinese equity indexes leading the way in Asia Pacific (Japan and South Korea lagged). Indian equities continued to climb higher. The Yuan has also somewhat stabilised and has strengthened against the USD since last week. Chinese … More Weekly Observations: Central Bankers as Gamemasters
Political experts use the phrase ‘strong men era’ to describe the current political landscape. Everywhere across the world, authoritarian leaders have swept into power (or simply seized it) since the start of the current decade. In the US, Republican President Donald Trump is widely considered as a populist politician who has an anti-establishment leaning. His … More We’re in an era of ‘Strong Men’: 4 things investors must take note of
The investment landscape is changing for the first time in 8 years. According to the IMF‘s data, America’s economy is operating at if not above capacity (output gap closing), with a relatively tight labour market and leveraging by both corporations and households. A pickup in investment began early last year, as growth accelerated and companies … More 3 areas to steer clear of & 1 chart to monitor
After reviewing Greg Gliner’s “Global Macro Trading” earlier, I thought I’ll work my way on another book. There aren’t many books on global macro and macro investing out there, so Javier Gonzalez’s new book – “How to Make Money with Global Macro” naturally piped my interest to work through it. I got it via Fishpond.com, … More Review of “How to Make Money with Global Macro”
2016 was a year of ups and downs and many unexpected events, but they are merely symptoms of the signs of the times.. If any, 2017 would probably be tumultuous as well, and as global macro investors, we are rewarded and protected by being opportunistic, nimble and adaptable. Like the famous Bruce Lee used to … More Review of 2016 & my thoughts for 2017
In its September policy update, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it’s tweaking its framework to “Quantitative & Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control”, with 2 major components: Yield curve control: “the bank will control short-term and long-term interest rates” Inflation-overshooting commitment: “the bank commits itself to expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year … More The BOJ’s new framework may mean that the Yen may become Confetti some day…
As the legendary Soros declares above: investing is never about making predictions, it is about making probability-adjusted bets. Hence global macro investors tend to map out scenarios and devise action plans to deal with uncertainty in the financial markets. The US Dollar is a mega trend that has to be observed closely by virtue of the … More Portfolio strategy for 4Q 2016: Watch the USD for cues
In 2008, (most) people all around the world were caught up in a rude shock as they see one of the worst financial crisis crashed upon the shores of their countries. Equity markets everywhere crashed, millions of jobs disappeared and banks all around the world had to be bailed out by governments. Even the British Queen (Elizabeth … More Deleveraging crisis ahead?