Embracing the opportunities of a multipolar world

The Battle of Red Cliffs (赤壁之戰) at the end of the Han Dynasty, ca. AD 208 "The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite; after a long period of union, tends to divide. This has been so since antiquity" Ancient Chinese proverb The Chinese believe that the above saying accurately … Continue reading Embracing the opportunities of a multipolar world

By winning battles against COVID-19, governments could lose the war

Our world is highly complex. History is filled with examples of how seemingly unrelated events led to unexpected outcomes. The interaction between humans and their physical environment has second and third order effects that aren't easy to understand. This makes the business of forecasting challenging, and the outcomes of various events difficult to model. American … Continue reading By winning battles against COVID-19, governments could lose the war

These reasons are getting me interested in the energy sector

A change in the Narrative Among the many eyebrow-raising, bizarre, and interesting developments (zero-interest rate policies, negative yielding bonds, rise of populism) that have occurred since 2010, one of them that really defined this current decade is the death of the 'peak-oil' narrative. Remember those days when people were talking about how there could be … Continue reading These reasons are getting me interested in the energy sector

Trade deal or no trade deal? It does not matter…

'We, the Chinese nation, after fifty years of sanguinary revolutions and five and a half years of sacrifice in the War of Resistance, have finally transformed the history of a hundred years of the Unequal Treaties of sorrow into a glorious record of the termination of the Unequal Treaties' ~ Chiang Kai-Shek, January 1943 Somewhere … Continue reading Trade deal or no trade deal? It does not matter…

‘Less about fundamentals, more about risk management’ ~ podcast with Mark Dow

I follow a couple of macro investors out there and Mark Dow of 'Behavioral Macro' is worth following. Dow was an economist with various stints in Wall Street institutions and even the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He currently manages a family office based out in Southern California. Futures Radio Show interviewed Dow at the beginning … Continue reading ‘Less about fundamentals, more about risk management’ ~ podcast with Mark Dow

Reading about Adaptive Systems, Biology & Power Laws may improve your investing

In an astutely written article titled 'The Expert Generalist - Why the Future Belongs to Polymaths', Zat Rana made a case for how the well-read and multi-disciplined generalist will outperform master specialists in an evolving world that is increasingly run by machines and artificial narrow intelligence. Rana emphasised that some of history's greatest contributors like Aristotle and … Continue reading Reading about Adaptive Systems, Biology & Power Laws may improve your investing

Weekly Observations: Central Bankers as Gamemasters

An excerpt from a week's journal: 20 August 2018: Observations & Thoughts Today was generally a risk-on environment, with Chinese equity indexes leading the way in Asia Pacific (Japan and South Korea lagged). Indian equities continued to climb higher. The Yuan has also somewhat stabilised and has strengthened against the USD since last week. Chinese … Continue reading Weekly Observations: Central Bankers as Gamemasters