"Perception is strong and sight weak. In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things." Miyamoto Musashi, 五輪書 The Near-View Risk-assets are likely to perform well into end-November or even the end of the year. Slower economic growth and geopolitical uncertainties … Continue reading Latest thoughts on markets
Last week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the U.S. took the financial community by storm as its January policy update were seen by investors and market observers as an outright 'U-Turn'. However, it may not be so. The most talked about was the change in the middle portion of the Fed's statement during … Continue reading The Fed did not make a U-Turn
It's time for a review of 2018, and I have to say that I managed to protect my capital (which is great and am fortunate) but I did not capitalise aggressively on opportunities that I was aware of. But for both Wall Street and Main Street and for investors who have to be invested from … Continue reading Reviewing 2018, & what’s next?
Political experts use the phrase 'strong men era' to describe the current political landscape. Everywhere across the world, authoritarian leaders have swept into power (or simply seized it) since the start of the current decade. In the US, Republican President Donald Trump is widely considered as a populist politician who has an anti-establishment leaning. His … Continue reading We’re in an era of ‘Strong Men’: 4 things investors must take note of
The first half of 2017 is over, and my book remained almost unchanged from the end of 1Q 2017 to the end of June. I maintain my defensive stance, risking one-third of my usual sizing for any new positions and also gunning for lowly-correlated positions in terms of price structure as well as fundamental logic. … Continue reading 2nd Quarter 2017 Review & Strategy for 2H 2017
To understand the game of the financial markets, we need to understand the game masters The game masters are the central banks, as they directly influence the costs of credit in the financial and real economy, influencing the business cycles The ECB will gradually move to wind down its stimulus programme, but has to maintain … Continue reading Playing the ECB’s potential tapering?
After reviewing Greg Gliner's "Global Macro Trading" earlier, I thought I'll work my way on another book. There aren't many books on global macro and macro investing out there, so Javier Gonzalez's new book - "How to Make Money with Global Macro" naturally piped my interest to work through it. I got it via Fishpond.com, … Continue reading Review of “How to Make Money with Global Macro”
In its September policy update, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it's tweaking its framework to "Quantitative & Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control", with 2 major components: Yield curve control: "the bank will control short-term and long-term interest rates" Inflation-overshooting commitment: "the bank commits itself to expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year … Continue reading The BOJ’s new framework may mean that the Yen may become Confetti some day…
In 2008, (most) people all around the world were caught up in a rude shock as they see one of the worst financial crisis crashed upon the shores of their countries. Equity markets everywhere crashed, millions of jobs disappeared and banks all around the world had to be bailed out by governments. Even the British Queen (Elizabeth … Continue reading Deleveraging crisis ahead?
May 1945. The Soviet Red Flag of the sickle and hammer flew over the Reichstag in Berlin. The guns of war fell silent for the first time since September 1939. As the Allies declared Victory in Europe (VE), Japan remained the sole Axis member to resist the Allied nations (led by the United States and … Continue reading When will the BOJ commit Seppuku?