By winning battles against COVID-19, governments could lose the war

Our world is highly complex. History is filled with examples of how seemingly unrelated events led to unexpected outcomes. The interaction between humans and their physical environment has second and third order effects that aren't easy to understand. This makes the business of forecasting challenging, and the outcomes of various events difficult to model. American … Continue reading By winning battles against COVID-19, governments could lose the war

2nd Quarter 2017 Review & Strategy for 2H 2017

The first half of 2017 is over, and my book remained almost unchanged from the end of 1Q 2017 to the end of June. I maintain my defensive stance, risking one-third of my usual sizing for any new positions and also gunning for lowly-correlated positions in terms of price structure as well as fundamental logic. … Continue reading 2nd Quarter 2017 Review & Strategy for 2H 2017

Review of 1st Quarter 2017 & Portfolio Update

While it was a decent 3 months for both broad equity and bond markets, all my trades did not work out as expected and I cut all┬ámy initial positions that were initiated in January. Additionally, a couple of my positions that were USD-denominated also saw valuations affected by the slight weakening of the Dollar against … Continue reading Review of 1st Quarter 2017 & Portfolio Update