I follow a couple of macro investors out there and Mark Dow of ‘Behavioral Macro‘ is worth following. Dow was an economist with various stints in Wall Street institutions and even the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He currently manages a family office based out in Southern California. Futures Radio Show interviewed Dow at the beginning … More ‘Less about fundamentals, more about risk management’ ~ podcast with Mark Dow
An excerpt from a week’s journal: 20 August 2018: Observations & Thoughts Today was generally a risk-on environment, with Chinese equity indexes leading the way in Asia Pacific (Japan and South Korea lagged). Indian equities continued to climb higher. The Yuan has also somewhat stabilised and has strengthened against the USD since last week. Chinese … More Weekly Observations: Central Bankers as Gamemasters
An excerpt from a week’s journal: Weekend 4 – 5 August 2018: Observations & Thoughts What a crazy week of a series of risk-off days. It’s time to reassess the macro liquidity landscape: US high yield bond credit spreads remain under control and are still relatively tight: The Chicago Fed’s ANFC Index is still at … More Weekly Observations
The investment landscape is changing for the first time in 8 years. According to the IMF‘s data, America’s economy is operating at if not above capacity (output gap closing), with a relatively tight labour market and leveraging by both corporations and households. A pickup in investment began early last year, as growth accelerated and companies … More 3 areas to steer clear of & 1 chart to monitor
An old Tuscan proverb claims that “after the game, the king and the pawn go into the same box”. Would the upcoming elections in Italy turn out to be as what the proverb claims? Political uncertainties have gripped Europe since the fated Brexit vote, and Italy is widely seen to be a poster child of … More Italian Elections – Il problema?
While it was a decent 3 months for both broad equity and bond markets, all my trades did not work out as expected and I cut all my initial positions that were initiated in January. Additionally, a couple of my positions that were USD-denominated also saw valuations affected by the slight weakening of the Dollar against … More Review of 1st Quarter 2017 & Portfolio Update
Foreign exchange rates are notoriously difficult to predict over the short term, because there’s a great deal of volume traded across the world by many various players (governments, corporations, individuals, etc) for all sorts of reasons. However, they are easier to see over a longer term period as they are the reflection of the interactions of … More Betting on the Czech Koruna & the Mundell-Fleming Trilemma