The Fed did not make a U-Turn

Last week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the U.S. took the financial community by storm as its January policy update were seen by investors and market observers as an outright 'U-Turn'. However, it may not be so. The most talked about was the change in the middle portion of the Fed's statement during … Continue reading The Fed did not make a U-Turn →

Weekly Observations: Central Bankers as Gamemasters

An excerpt from a week's journal: 20 August 2018: Observations & Thoughts Today was generally a risk-on environment, with Chinese equity indexes leading the way in Asia Pacific (Japan and South Korea lagged). Indian equities continued to climb higher. The Yuan has also somewhat stabilised and has strengthened against the USD since last week. Chinese … Continue reading Weekly Observations: Central Bankers as Gamemasters →

3 areas to steer clear of & 1 chart to monitor

The investment landscape is changing for the first time in 8 years. According to the IMF's data, America's economy is operating at if not above capacity (output gap closing), with a relatively tight labour market and leveraging by both corporations and households. A pickup in investment began early last year, as growth accelerated and companies … Continue reading 3 areas to steer clear of & 1 chart to monitor →

2nd Quarter 2017 Review & Strategy for 2H 2017

The first half of 2017 is over, and my book remained almost unchanged from the end of 1Q 2017 to the end of June. I maintain my defensive stance, risking one-third of my usual sizing for any new positions and also gunning for lowly-correlated positions in terms of price structure as well as fundamental logic. … Continue reading 2nd Quarter 2017 Review & Strategy for 2H 2017 →

Portfolio strategy for 4Q 2016: Watch the USD for cues

As the legendary Soros declares above: investing is never about making predictions, it is about making probability-adjusted bets. Hence global macro investors tend to map out scenarios and devise action plans to deal with uncertainty in the financial markets. The US Dollar is a mega trend that has to be observed closely by virtue of the … Continue reading Portfolio strategy for 4Q 2016: Watch the USD for cues →

The Greenback’s bull run may not be over… yet

Year-to-date, the US Dollar has weakened against many currencies, including the Japanese Yen, the Swiss Franc and commodity currencies like the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollars. This weakness has led to some commentators saying that the USD's rise since 2014 is now over. However, there exists a high probability that the greenback may roar back to … Continue reading The Greenback’s bull run may not be over… yet →