An old Tuscan proverb claims that “after the game, the king and the pawn go into the same box”. Would the upcoming elections in Italy turn out to be as what the proverb claims? Political uncertainties have gripped Europe since the fated Brexit vote, and Italy is widely seen to be a poster child of … More Italian Elections – Il problema?
To understand the game of the financial markets, we need to understand the game masters The game masters are the central banks, as they directly influence the costs of credit in the financial and real economy, influencing the business cycles The ECB will gradually move to wind down its stimulus programme, but has to maintain … More Playing the ECB’s potential tapering?
Foreign exchange rates are notoriously difficult to predict over the short term, because there’s a great deal of volume traded across the world by many various players (governments, corporations, individuals, etc) for all sorts of reasons. However, they are easier to see over a longer term period as they are the reflection of the interactions of … More Betting on the Czech Koruna & the Mundell-Fleming Trilemma
2016’s a year that has been dominated by concerns over banks, and in particular, European banks. Financial markets were spooked in January after banks like Deutsche Bank missed 4Q 2015’s earnings targets by a wide margin, and solvency problems also rose as investors became concerned that banks and lenders around the world would be affected … More Europe’s banks turning the corner?
As the legendary Soros declares above: investing is never about making predictions, it is about making probability-adjusted bets. Hence global macro investors tend to map out scenarios and devise action plans to deal with uncertainty in the financial markets. The US Dollar is a mega trend that has to be observed closely by virtue of the … More Portfolio strategy for 4Q 2016: Watch the USD for cues
While a ton has been said on the United Kingdom’s European Union (EU) referendum results since the 23rd of June, I will explain 2 major implications that I personally feel could lead to several, long-lasting effects across the world as we know it, as well as some implications that they could have on the investment … More My thoughts on Brexit – and its implications