Our world is highly complex. History is filled with examples of how seemingly unrelated events led to unexpected outcomes. The interaction between humans and their physical environment has second and third order effects that aren't easy to understand. This makes the business of forecasting challenging, and the outcomes of various events difficult to model. American … Continue reading By winning battles against COVID-19, governments could lose the war
Review of 1st Quarter 2017 & Portfolio Update
While it was a decent 3 months for both broad equity and bond markets, all my trades did not work out as expected and I cut all my initial positions that were initiated in January. Additionally, a couple of my positions that were USD-denominated also saw valuations affected by the slight weakening of the Dollar against … Continue reading Review of 1st Quarter 2017 & Portfolio Update
Are Grains bottoming out?
Over the past 2 decades, a more interconnected and intertwined world have allowed capital to flow easily across borders, leading to rising correlations among asset classes that were once thought to be totally disconnected or unrelated to one another. One such area is the grain market, where the increasing usage of bio-fuels as well as … Continue reading Are Grains bottoming out?