Latest thoughts on markets

"Perception is strong and sight weak. In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things." Miyamoto Musashi, 五輪書 The Near-View Risk-assets are likely to perform well into end-November or even the end of the year. Slower economic growth and geopolitical uncertainties … Continue reading Latest thoughts on markets →

Italian Elections – Il problema?

An old Tuscan proverb claims that "after the game, the king and the pawn go into the same box". Would the upcoming elections in Italy turn out to be as what the proverb claims? Political uncertainties have gripped Europe since the fated Brexit vote, and Italy is widely seen to be a poster child of … Continue reading Italian Elections – Il problema? →

Playing the ECB’s potential tapering?

To understand the game of the financial markets, we need to understand the game masters The game masters are the central banks, as they directly influence the costs of credit in the financial and real economy, influencing the business cycles The ECB will gradually move to wind down its stimulus programme, but has to maintain … Continue reading Playing the ECB’s potential tapering? →

Europe’s banks turning the corner?

2016's a year that has been dominated by concerns over banks, and in particular, European banks. Financial markets were spooked in January after banks like Deutsche Bank missed 4Q 2015's earnings targets by a wide margin, and solvency problems also rose as investors became concerned that banks and lenders around the world would be affected … Continue reading Europe’s banks turning the corner? →