An excerpt from a week’s journal: 20 August 2018: Observations & Thoughts Today was generally a risk-on environment, with Chinese equity indexes leading the way in Asia Pacific (Japan and South Korea lagged). Indian equities continued to climb higher. The Yuan has also somewhat stabilised and has strengthened against the USD since last week. Chinese … More Weekly Observations: Central Bankers as Gamemasters
I recently attended a forum organised by the Singapore Exchange (SGX) and SmartKarma, where an interesting guest speaker was invited for a keynote address. Dr Jim Walker of Asianomics, a witty Scottish economist based in Hong Kong who speaks with a semi-thick Scot accent, delivered an insightful presentation regarding the future prospects of Southeast Asian … More Dr Jim Walker’s thoughts, & observations from Penang…
The first half of 2017 is over, and my book remained almost unchanged from the end of 1Q 2017 to the end of June. I maintain my defensive stance, risking one-third of my usual sizing for any new positions and also gunning for lowly-correlated positions in terms of price structure as well as fundamental logic. … More 2nd Quarter 2017 Review & Strategy for 2H 2017
While it was a decent 3 months for both broad equity and bond markets, all my trades did not work out as expected and I cut all my initial positions that were initiated in January. Additionally, a couple of my positions that were USD-denominated also saw valuations affected by the slight weakening of the Dollar against … More Review of 1st Quarter 2017 & Portfolio Update
In its September policy update, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it’s tweaking its framework to “Quantitative & Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control”, with 2 major components: Yield curve control: “the bank will control short-term and long-term interest rates” Inflation-overshooting commitment: “the bank commits itself to expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year … More The BOJ’s new framework may mean that the Yen may become Confetti some day…
As the legendary Soros declares above: investing is never about making predictions, it is about making probability-adjusted bets. Hence global macro investors tend to map out scenarios and devise action plans to deal with uncertainty in the financial markets. The US Dollar is a mega trend that has to be observed closely by virtue of the … More Portfolio strategy for 4Q 2016: Watch the USD for cues
When well-known talk show host Charlie Rose sat down with the late Lee Kuan Yew (the first Prime Minister of Singapore) back in early 2009, he asked Mr Lee what he would like to convey or ask the newly-elected US president Barrack Obama. Mr Lee’s question to President Obama was direct and surreptitiously grim: “How would you defend … More Is Defense a growth industry in Asia-Pacific?