An excerpt from a week’s journal: 20 August 2018: Observations & Thoughts Today was generally a risk-on environment, with Chinese equity indexes leading the way in Asia Pacific (Japan and South Korea lagged). Indian equities continued to climb higher. The Yuan has also somewhat stabilised and has strengthened against the USD since last week. Chinese … More Weekly Observations: Central Bankers as Gamemasters
An excerpt from a week’s journal: Weekend 4 – 5 August 2018: Observations & Thoughts What a crazy week of a series of risk-off days. It’s time to reassess the macro liquidity landscape: US high yield bond credit spreads remain under control and are still relatively tight: The Chicago Fed’s ANFC Index is still at … More Weekly Observations
The Japanese have a term to describe the effort of continuous improvement for the better: 改善 (pronounced ‘Kai-zen’) That’s what exactly what I need to do. Ever since I decided that I wanted to be a successful macro investor, I’ve embarked on my never-ending journey, climbed mountains and went through valleys, sought out the sages, … More 3rd Quarter 2017 Review: Time for Kaizen!
The first half of 2017 is over, and my book remained almost unchanged from the end of 1Q 2017 to the end of June. I maintain my defensive stance, risking one-third of my usual sizing for any new positions and also gunning for lowly-correlated positions in terms of price structure as well as fundamental logic. … More 2nd Quarter 2017 Review & Strategy for 2H 2017
While it was a decent 3 months for both broad equity and bond markets, all my trades did not work out as expected and I cut all my initial positions that were initiated in January. Additionally, a couple of my positions that were USD-denominated also saw valuations affected by the slight weakening of the Dollar against … More Review of 1st Quarter 2017 & Portfolio Update
2016 was a year of ups and downs and many unexpected events, but they are merely symptoms of the signs of the times.. If any, 2017 would probably be tumultuous as well, and as global macro investors, we are rewarded and protected by being opportunistic, nimble and adaptable. Like the famous Bruce Lee used to … More Review of 2016 & my thoughts for 2017
As the legendary Soros declares above: investing is never about making predictions, it is about making probability-adjusted bets. Hence global macro investors tend to map out scenarios and devise action plans to deal with uncertainty in the financial markets. The US Dollar is a mega trend that has to be observed closely by virtue of the … More Portfolio strategy for 4Q 2016: Watch the USD for cues