Some of my best trades and investments since I started dabbling in financial markets came from investing in entire single countries that have fallen out of favour and holding them for a period of time until they become popular among investors again. What were some of them? My investments in Argentinian equities back in late-2015 … Continue reading Greece – turning the corner?
The Fourth of May is commonly known in modern day pop culture as 'Star Wars Day'. It is a catchphrase among Star Wars fans and geeks, and they greet each other with the longer phrase 'May the Fourth be with you', using 'Fourth' as a pun for 'the Force', which is the name of the … Continue reading Trade Deal? The Chinese may not fold yet
A change in the Narrative Among the many eyebrow-raising, bizarre, and interesting developments (zero-interest rate policies, negative yielding bonds, rise of populism) that have occurred since 2010, one of them that really defined this current decade is the death of the 'peak-oil' narrative. Remember those days when people were talking about how there could be … Continue reading These reasons are getting me interested in the energy sector
One of the best articles that I’ve read in 2018 was a Bloomberg piece I opened while commuting in the subway on a rainy weekday. Kit Chellel’s ‘The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code’ was simply breath-taking. It chronicles the life of Mr Bill Benter, a swashbuckling horse-racing gambler born in Pittsburgh in the United … Continue reading This Horse-racing gambler earned almost a billion – here’s what he can teach us
Last week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the U.S. took the financial community by storm as its January policy update were seen by investors and market observers as an outright 'U-Turn'. However, it may not be so. The most talked about was the change in the middle portion of the Fed's statement during … Continue reading The Fed did not make a U-Turn
It's time for a review of 2018, and I have to say that I managed to protect my capital (which is great and am fortunate) but I did not capitalise aggressively on opportunities that I was aware of. But for both Wall Street and Main Street and for investors who have to be invested from … Continue reading Reviewing 2018, & what’s next?
'We, the Chinese nation, after fifty years of sanguinary revolutions and five and a half years of sacrifice in the War of Resistance, have finally transformed the history of a hundred years of the Unequal Treaties of sorrow into a glorious record of the termination of the Unequal Treaties' ~ Chiang Kai-Shek, January 1943 Somewhere … Continue reading Trade deal or no trade deal? It does not matter…
MMT stands for 'Modern Monetary Theory', and it may be the next must-know term to know and understand before it becomes mainstream. OK, but what exactly is Modern Monetary Theory? The Roosevelt Institute published an article about it eight years ago, and it simply describes a school of thought in macro-economic thinking that revolves around … Continue reading If there’s one thing to know soon, it’s MMT
I follow a couple of macro investors out there and Mark Dow of 'Behavioral Macro' is worth following. Dow was an economist with various stints in Wall Street institutions and even the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He currently manages a family office based out in Southern California. Futures Radio Show interviewed Dow at the beginning … Continue reading ‘Less about fundamentals, more about risk management’ ~ podcast with Mark Dow
I once learnt futures trading under an ex-investment professional who was with Temasek and later in the hedge fund industry. While I adapted my style and strategy over the years, there was one valuable piece of advise that I held to heart till this day. Over lunch once, he talked about the famous macro investor … Continue reading Soros, Reflexivity & the Aussie Housing Market (Quick Thoughts)